Doug Cooper | 3rd March 2026
Over many years of paddling in wild places, I can remember countless days when everything came together — forecast aligned, tides behaved, the group moved well, and the journey felt smooth and unforced. I can also remember a few days when things didn’t quite line up. Days when the wind arrived earlier than expected; When the landing was more awkward than it looked on the chart; When, driving home, you quietly admit — we were lucky there.
Increasingly, whether in paddlesport, mountaineering or avalanche terrain, incident reports point toward the same underlying theme: not dramatic recklessness, but human decision-making. Not bad people; Not incapable paddlers; Just ordinary decisions made under subtle pressure.
So, if keeping safe is largely about making good decisions — how do we make sure they are good ones?
The decision of when to paddle a committing coastline – Orkney Mainland west coast
How We Make Decisions on the Water
When we’re out kayaking, decisions are being made constantly. Broadly speaking, they happen in two ways.
Thinking Slow: This is deliberate, analytical thinking. It happens when we’re planning a route, studying tidal streams, reading forecasts, or discussing options over a map. It allows us to weigh information and consider consequences.
Thinking Fast: This happens on the move and in the moment. Naturally just adjusting angle to wind or reading surface texture and instinctively altering course.
Fast thinking is built on experience — and it’s essential. But it also relies on mental shortcuts known as heuristics. These shortcuts are efficient and are key to ‘in the moment’ decision-making, but if not monitored they can also quietly lead us astray. Research suggests that many outdoor incidents are influenced by these fast-thinking moments of heuristic decision-making rather than a lack of knowledge or skill.
Fast thinking is often the order of the day in the surf zone
The Common Traps
Studies in avalanche terrain have identified a number of recurring heuristic decision-making traps that can occur. They translate remarkably well to sea kayaking.
Reflect back to previous (mis) adventures and see how many are familiar:
- Confirmation Bias – Seeing what we hoped would happen rather than what is actually happening. “It’s only a bit windier than forecast.”
- Familiarity – “It’s always been fine here before.” Conditions today get filtered through yesterday’s experience.
- Commitment – You’ve driven a long way and it’s your only weekend off in a while, so you really don’t want to change what you have decided you want to do.
- Acceptance – Not wanting to be the one who questions the plan.
- Social Proof – Another group just paddled through; it must be fine.
- Scarcity – When a rare weather/conditions window opens up and it is just too good to miss no matter what.
- Satisficing – Accepting the first workable option instead of pausing to consider whether it’s the best one.
None of these feel dramatic in the moment. That’s precisely why they’re powerful.
A simple decision-making framework to help
A Simple Framework for Better Decisions
Other high-consequence environments — aviation, medicine and avalanche forecasting — have shown that a structured approach to decision-making improves safety. The Snow & Avalanche Foundation of Scotland developed a practical framework to support this, and with only minor adaptation it translates very well to sea kayaking.
A simple way to anchor ourselves on the water is to focus on three key factors, considered across three phases of a journey.
The Three Key Factors:
Weather & Water: wind, precipitation, temperature, visibility, water conditions, tides, surf etc. What the sea is actually doing — not what we expected it to do.
The Group: Skills, experience, fitness, equipment. Are ambitions genuinely aligned? Is anyone feeling quietly stretched?
The Environment: Exposure and shelter. Commitment level of crossings or headlands. Landing options and escape routes. Cliffs and caves. Tidal races. How serious does it become if conditions build?
Safe decisions sit in the dynamic balance between these three. If one shifts, the others need to compensate.
A Key Place identified for critical decision-making with regards the ice in Greenland
The Three Important Phases
Planning – Slow Time Thinking
This is our best opportunity for clear thinking.
Days or hours before setting out, we can gather information and build margin into the plan.
The Journey – Active Noticing (fast time thinking)
From the drive to the launch and throughout the paddle itself, we continually check:
Is reality matching the plan? The wind arriving early. The swell refracting more than expected. The group moving differently than anticipated.
That first flicker of doubt is valuable information. When something doesn’t quite fit, it’s often worth pausing to consider making a decision and adapting the plan accordingly.
Key Places – Press Pause (slow time thinking)
Before the tidal race.
Before rounding the committing headland.
Before an exposed crossing or surf landing.
These are moments to deliberately slow down and are identified at the planning stage.
Raft up. Drift. Eat something.
Ask simple questions: “Are we still happy with this?”; “What’s our exit if it builds?”; “Is anyone feeling stretched?”
These pauses create space for slow thinking to challenge fast assumptions.
Critical decision-making in a committing and dynamic environment
It’s Rarely One Big Mistake
Sea kayaking in Scotland will always carry uncertainty. That’s part of its appeal — moving through a dynamic environment that demands attention and respect.
The aim isn’t to eliminate risk.
It’s to manage it thoughtfully.
Most poor outcomes don’t come from one reckless act. They come from a series of small, reasonable decisions that slowly drift beyond the margin. Over the years, I’ve made decisions I’m proud of — and others that relied more on luck than judgement.
What I’ve learned is this:
The sea rarely changes without giving signals first. People will give similar signals if things don’t feel right
The question is whether we notice — and whether we act.
By consciously attending to weather & water, the group, and the environment — and by giving ourselves structured moments to slow down — we improve not only safety, but the quality of the experience itself.
Because the best trips aren’t the boldest ones. They’re the ones where everyone returns wanting to go again.
Stay safe out there — and enjoy the journey.
Inspired and supported by Peak PS
